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Table 6 Estimated cumulative mortality percentage change per 1°C decrease in maximum temperature by age and gender groups, in Northern Ireland during winter‡ for ages ≥18 years, 1984–2007*

From: The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

 

Male and Female

All Ages

18-64 years

65-74 years

75+ years

Male

Female

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

All-cause Mortality†

2.7 (−0.7, 6.0)

4.5 (1.6, 7.3)

5.1 (3.3, 6.9)

4.8 (2.8, 6.8)

4.3 (2.4, 6.2)

CVD†

4.3 (−1.7, 10.3)

4.7 (−0.1, 9.6)

3.5 (0.1, 6.8)

5.1 (1.8, 8.5)

2.6 (−0.9, 6.1)

 IHD†

3.6 (−3.0, 10.3)

5.2 (−0.3, 10.6)

3.1 (−0.9, 7.2)

4.4 (0.6, 8.2)

3.1 (−1.3, 7.4)

 MI†

4.0 (−3.5, 11.6)

4.3 (−1.6, 10.3)

3.3 (−1.2, 7.8)

4.1 (0.02, 8.3)

3.2 (−1.3, 7.8)

Respiratory Disease∂

15.3 (0.5, 30.2)

12.8 (2.3, 23.2)

10.4 (4.9, 15.8)

9.2 (3.0, 15.4)

12.9 (7.2, 18.6)

 COPD†

11.4 (−7.0, 29.7)

15.6 (2.6, 28.6)

7.8 (−2.0, 17.6)

10.4 (1.7, 19.2)

10.9 (0.7, 21.1)

 Pneumonia∂

19.2 (−6.3, 44.7)

9.5 (−7.6, 26.6)

9.7 (2.4, 17.1)

7.4 (−1.1, 15.9)

11.9 (5.0, 18.8)

Stroke†

6.2 (−8.0, 20.3)

3.3 (−6.8, 13.5)

5.0 (−0.3, 10.4)

6.8 (0.2, 13.4)

3.6 (−1.5, 8.7)

  1. Abbreviations: CI = confidence intervals, COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CVD = cardiovascular disease, IHD = ischemic heart disease, MI = myocardial infarction. *Models included mortality data for ages ≥18 years, and were adjusted for Lag0 of maximum temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure averaged over 3 days lag, and day of week. % Change = estimated mortality percentage change per 1°C decrease in weekly mean of maximum temperature. ‡Winter Months = December to February. ∂Effect modification examined for cumulative change for lags of week 1 to 4; and (†) for cumulative change for lags of week 1 to 3.
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Environmental Health

ISSN: 1476-069X