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Table 1 Time series regression on the percentage of male births in East Germany, 1946-2011

From: Economic stress or random variation? Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth

  Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
  Least squares model ARMA (1,1) Weighted least squares models
ARMA(1,1), ARCH(2) Weighted by birth counts Weights of models 3 & 4 combined
  β (SE) β (SE) β (SE) β (SE) β (SE)
(Intercept) 30.225*** 20.833*** 30.282*** 30.918*** 31.221***
  (8.729) (.731) (8.220) (8.069) (7.838)
Time Series .581*** .724*** .580*** .575*** .569***
(West Germany) (.136) (.014) (.127) (.122) (.117)
Year -.004*** -.003*** -.004*** -.005*** -.005***
(.001) (.000) (.001) (.001) (.001)
Year = 1991 -.300* -.138 -.299* -.294 -.293
(.120) (.108) (.134) (.152) (.174)
AR(1)   .549*** .145   
   (.125) (.385)   
MA(1)   -1.000*** -.486   
   (.044) (.365)   
AIC -88.2 -95.1 -91.5 -92.8 -92.7
R2 .683 - .698 .710 .716
Adj. R2 .668 - .684 .696 .702
Num. obs. 66 66 66 66 66
  1. Data source: Human Mortality Database[50], own calculations; ***p < .001, **p < .01, *p < .05.