Table 1 Input variables included in the sensitivity analysis.

Exposure-response coefficient for cardiopulmonary mortality, adults (RR)

Parameter uncertainty

Mixed^a

1.12 (1.04;1.27)

Relative increase of mortality per 10 μgm^-3 increase of PM_2.5 exposure. Values were drawn with equal probability from the two distributions reported in the references Dockery et al. 1993 [10] and Pope et al. 2002 (table 3, average between 1979 and 1999-200 results) [25].

Exposure-response coefficient for lung cancer mortality, adults (RR)

Parameter uncertainty

Mixed

1.15 (0.94;1.40)

Exposure-response coefficient for all other non-accidental mortality, adults (RR)

Parameter uncertainty

Mixed

1.01 (0.91;1.09)

Plausibility, cardiopulmonary mortality

Model uncertainty

Bernoulli^b

P = 0.7 yes, P = 0.3 no

AJ^c. Plausibility = "Is the observed effect due to true causal connection."

Plausibility, lung cancer mortality

Model uncertainty

Bernoulli

P = 0.9 yes, P = 0.1 no

Plausibility, other mortality

Model uncertainty

Bernoulli

P = 0.1 yes, P = 0.9 no

Exposure-response coefficient for non-accidental mortality, infants (RR)

Parameter uncertainty

Normal^d

1.04; 0.013

Relative increase of infant mortality (less than one year old infants) per 10 μgm^-3 increase of PM_2.5 exposure. Reference Woodruff et al. 1997 [30].

Plausibility, non-accidental mortality, infant

Model uncertainty

Bernoulli

P = 0.6 yes, P = 0.4 no

AJ. Plausibility = "Is the observed effect due to true causal connection."

Lag vs. zero-lag

Model uncertainty

Bernoulli

P = 0.5 yes, P = 0.5 no

AJ. Lag = the time difference between the exposure and the causal health effect. See The lag sub-model chapter for details.

Exposure (μgm^-3), infants (2002) (ΔE)

Parameter uncertainty

Log-normal^e

0.31; 3.27

The exposure of study population for local traffic related primary fine particles (0–6, 7–59 and 59–110 years for infants, adults and elderly, respectively). The exposure model [19–21] was based on EXPOLIS-Helsinki study [22–24]. See Exposure scenarios sub-model chapter for details.

Exposure (μgm^-3), adults (2002) (ΔE)

Parameter uncertainty

Log-normal

0.56; 2.81

Exposure (μgm^-3), elderly (2002) (ΔE)

Parameter uncertainty

Log-normal

0.55; 3.08

Exposure (μgm^-3), infants (2025) (ΔE)

Parameter uncertainty

Log-normal

0.14; 3.56

Exposure (μgm^-3), adults (2025) (ΔE)

Parameter uncertainty

Log-normal

0.21; 2.94

Exposure (μgm^-3), elderly (2025) (ΔE)

Parameter uncertainty

Log-normal

0.2; 3.24

Valuation of a life-year-lost

Parameter uncertainty

Uniform^f

52000; 120000

Min and max from CAFE study [39]. See text for details.

Discount

Model uncertainty

Uniform

0.02; 0.06

Min and max from CAFE study [39]. See text for details.

Blank

-

Uniform

0.0; 1.0

Blank = internal standard of the model. Not related to the model results.