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Table 4 Summary of statistics for model prediction relative to original model for Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA) and Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA), Portugal. Values in bold represent lower errors using simulated rather than observed temperature

From: Bootstrap approach to validate the performance of models for predicting mortality risk temperature in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas

WINTER

Model based on

Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005

Using Tmean

Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005

Using Tmin

 

MAD

RSME

MAD

RSME

PMA 1986–2000 (Observed)

0.1565

0.0521

0.1854

0.0407

LMA 1986–2000 (Observed)

0.4367

0.4916

0.1183

0.0579

PMA 1986–2000 (Simulated)

0.2205

0.0856

0.1095

0.0447

LMA 1986–2000 (Simulated)

0.3041

0.3296

0.3040

0.3296

SUMMER

Model based on

Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005

Tmean

Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005

Using Tmax

 

MAD

RSME

MAD

RSME

PMA 1986–2000 (Observed)

0.1215

0.0299

0.0033

0.00002

LMA 1986–2000 (Observed)

0.0612

0.0068

0.0922

0.0299

PMA 1986–2000 (Simulated)

0.0079

0.0002

0.0068

0.0002

LMA 1986–2000 (Simulated)

0.0202

0.0010

0.0005

0.0208