- Open Access
Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing
© The Author(s). 2017
- Published: 5 December 2017
The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.
- Stakeholder engagement
- Theoretical frameworks
- Ecosystem services
The effects of global climate change are now observable in every part of the world. Scientific assessments suggest that nowhere will be immune to the future threats climate change poses to human health and wellbeing . Remarkably, many of the indirect adverse health impacts driven by climate-related ecological disruption and their consequences remain to be explored. Crop failures and shifting patterns in disease vectors are remote from current decision-making on energy systems and the aggregating emissions of greenhouse gases. Impacts emerge both from the physical and ecological changes across the globe, and from the societal responses such as geographic and social displacement of populations in conditions of prolonged drought or of severe and persistent flooding. Behaviors and lifestyles, as well as health, social and economic inequalities, will be profoundly affected by climate change [2, 3].
This paper does not seek to systematically review the health impacts of climate change but rather to reinforce the need for any country or community to better capture and communicate its true public health implications in a policy-relevant way. We focus here on the adverse impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing, through what we define as proximal and distal pathways. We adopt and define the terms “proximal” and “distal” here for a specific purpose but recognize their use relates to and is informed by wider critiques when discussing causality in epidemiology and public health [4, 5]. Climate change is only one amongst many huge societal challenges emerging from global environmental change. Addressing all such challenges requires the identification of actions which simultaneously protect ecosystems and human health and wellbeing in ways which are socially inclusive, sustainable and equitable, globally and across multiple generations. We recognize the important contribution of others (for instance the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - MEA etc.) in identifying and exploiting ecosystem services as a bridge between the environmental science and public health communities and especially the issue of climate change and public health . Developing this theme, we argue that pathways which appear distal to national public health concerns must be made explicit within national policy and decision making. In Scotland, holistic issue framing approaches were used to facilitate a richer interpretation of the environmental contribution in health and wellbeing and especially equity [7, 8]. This gave public health both traction and influence beyond its traditional territory resulting, e.g. in public health involvement in the creation of a place standard .
We argue that similar approaches can provide greater traction for public health in addressing local, national and international climate change and its determinants.
Unless communicated in more comprehensible and accessible ways, the distal pathways from climate change to health and wellbeing will certainly remain fractured and illogical to a significant and influential constituency, including policy makers and politicians. Yet it is often about more than communication. For policy and other decision makers, pathways that are distal in space or time are easier to disregard. The consequence is that key issues will be under-accounted for in decision-making. This has led to a growing demand to modernize public health around ecological principles. Sometimes termed “ecological public health”, the approach accords with the new importance attributed to these distal issues [3, 29, 30].
Yet it remains a major challenge to achieve recognition amongst the public and policymakers that the choices they make locally drive current and future climate-related environmental change wherever it occurs. Individual and societal choice forges the first links in every chain of events from human activities as drivers of climate change to immediate and distant health and wellbeing outcomes. However, if the necessary importance and priority are to be accorded to addressing climate change (and indeed all global environmental issues), a much broader constituency will need to have a much clearer understanding of the fundamental human reliance on natural ecosystems than currently appears to be the case. Such an understanding is central to making less opaque, particularly, the distal pathways from climate-related environmental change to health and wellbeing.
The use of simple conceptual models to think about and communicate human social complexity is well established in public health [31, 32]. In earlier work Morris et al., and Reis et al. [33, 34] have advocated the use of conceptual models to frame complex issues in the field of environmental health in a policy-relevant way. Morris et al.  modified the established Drivers Pressures State, Exposure, Effect, Action or “DPSEEA” model [35, 36] to better reflect social complexity in environmental health policy in Scotland [37, 38]. In part, this was achieved by capturing, within the model, the fact that a range of contextual factors can critically influence whether individuals are exposed to an aspect of environment and whether this exposure impacts on their health and wellbeing. Context is both an exposure and an effect modifier.
More recently, Reis et al.  developed an ecosystems enriched (eDPSEEA) model to make explicit how environmental health encompasses both the proximal environmental determinants of health and wellbeing, and also the impacts caused by anthropogenic damage to ecosystems. The eDPSEEA model incorporates the insights of the MEA  by explicitly linking ecosystem services (the benefits which humans derive from ecosystems) to human health and wellbeing within a notional chain of causation. It presents the health of humans and of ecosystems as intimately interconnected, and thus equally important to consider both as important outcomes.
The MEA  achieved a more inclusive and policy-relevant representation of the wider importance of ecosystem services by identifying four different types of ecosystem services: provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting. The MEA also projected how ecosystem services impact on human wellbeing, whether through the supply of material goods or through supporting social relations, security and freedom of choice and undermining health itself. Since then, the concept and structure of ecosystem services and their relationships with, and relevance for, humanity have been widely discussed. Fisher et al.  distinguish between intermediate and final ecosystem services, while De Groot et al.  relate ecosystem functions and the services they provide in a comprehensive, integrated framework, incorporating earlier work by Daily et al. [39, 40]. A common feature of many ecosystem services (ES) definitions, e.g. as used in the MEA and the UK National Ecosystem Assessment  is that some services provide direct benefits (provisioning, regulating and cultural ES). In contrast others, like nutrient recycling or soil formation underpin ecosystem function (supporting ES).
It has been observed that “all models are wrong but some are useful” . Yet, In addition to promoting mechanistic understanding, the process and the product of populating simple conceptual models, such as eDPSEEA and others, can clarify both the distal and proximal pathways through which climate change can affect health and serve as a tool for engagement with stakeholders .
It is evident that both short term proximal climate-related stressors, and the more remote, longer term, indirect distal stressors are acting together to generate threats to public health and wellbeing in all locations, particularly with deprived populations globally. There is a growing number of examples of health inequality issues as climate change increasingly affects global food security and population migration.
Individuals and socio-economic groups in local environments are affected by a combination of proximal and distal effects, some immediate, but others subsequently translated by economic, biogeochemical and resource flow mechanisms. These mechanisms have been elaborated by Adger et al.  as teleconnections linking vulnerabilities across space and time, and by Liu et al. [44, 45] as connections between sending, receiving and spillover systems. Here, we develop insights using a dichotomy between the distal and the proximal pathways from environmental change to human health and wellbeing, recognizing the inherent complexity of most interactions. Macro and micro level processes continually interact and are tele-connected through systemic environmental processes, through the flows of material and mobility of populations around the world, and, importantly, through market and economic linkages .
Climate change and distal food security
Food, nutrition and agricultural trade are potentially sensitive to climatic changes [1, 46]. Rising levels of CO2 both lead to a changing climate and can reduce the nutritional quality of crop production . Relative to an unchanging climate, yields of principal agricultural crops are already being affected globally, and have the potential to decline without major adaptations in technology and water use efficiency [1, 46, 48]. These changes are spatially sensitive, with risks of yield decrease likely to be greater in the hotter parts of the world . However, there is considerable scope for the food and trade-system to adapt to climate change . This might be achieved via changes in the area of production (expansion of which may exacerbate climate change by liberating carbon in land conversion), and through impacts on trade and prices. However, given the complexity of the system, it is not clear how the multiple potential drivers of food availability and price will interact around issues such as: food for feed ; biofuels ; carbon pricing ; water availability ; competition for land and other resources ; and the need for agriculture to be sustainable . Increasing weather variability may lead to short term unexpected shocks to supply [1, 46] that create significant volatility in food prices, impacting on the wellbeing of food insecure populations in all parts of the world.
Variation in prices driven by weather-related impacts have accentuated price shocks and created localized food shortages ; both factors impact most, the poor sections of populations. For example, in the UK, analysis of purchases following the 2007/8 global commodity food price spike show that as prices increased, households purchased 4.2% less food  and bought lower quality alternatives. The greatest impact was on the poorest income decile: they spent 17% more in 2011 compared to 2007, so their relative food bill increased by 40% more than the UK average. On a global basis, food price spikes, driven by weather in the main bread-basket regions, directly impact market prices in the import-dependent low income countries, as well as indirectly influencing the food aid donated by the rich world. As a result, in sub-Saharan Africa particularly, the number of hungry increased following the 2007/8 and 2010/11 food price spikes. Furthermore, the food price spike of 2010/11 has been estimated to have pushed >40 million people globally below basic needs poverty line in those years . Thus, weather impacts from climate change are likely to impact nutritional and future health status in all parts of the world and among consumers as well as producers .
While food prices provide a proximal link between food security and climate change, the distal implications of climate change are profound. The growth of demand for food is driven by rising population size and wealth, and the need for sustainability. In many analyses demand is regarded as exogenous, driven by relationships with increasing wealth , to which interventions need to be directed. However, the relationship between food and health are likely to shape trends in demand [50, 59], and thus affect global agricultural production.
Climate change proximal and distal implications through migration and mobility
Climate changes involve spatial changes to economic and environmental systems that will prompt proximal and distal demographic responses. Fundamentally climate change will have an impact on where people live and on the decisions they make about moving from one location to another. Migration is a central element of economic and demographic change everywhere in the world. In effect, migration flows at the aggregate level are driven principally by differences in economic activity across space and time, though all individual decisions involve social, cultural and demographic dimensions. Some elements of the relative attractiveness of different areas, and hence the demand for migration, are sensitive to weather and climate. Hence resource scarcity, the availability of ecosystem services, and issues of security and hazard, all factor in the relative attractiveness of places and decisions to move between them [60–63].
Climate changes have proximal and distal impacts on different types of migration. Displacement of populations from their place of residence as a result of extreme events is most often temporary and undertaken involuntarily, but has major public health and policy consequences. In the UK, for example, flood events temporarily displace people from their homes, often for months after events . The impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Louisiana and New Orleans in 2005 showed that displacement of populations from the flood impacts lead to very divergent patterns of who returned and who permanently migrated: wealthier populations predominantly returned while poorer populations more frequently moved away permanently, thus changing the demographics of the whole region in the long term .
Climate change-induced resource scarcity reduces the potential for capital accumulation in resource-sensitive economies, and thus has a potential negative impact on the mobility potential of sections of the population who do not have the resources necessary for migration. Hence, populations may experience a poverty-immobility nexus, where increased mobility would be necessary for effective adaptation. In addition, migration trends of populations moving into expanding cities throughout developing and emerging economies means that a growing number of populations are more exposed to weather and climate hazards in those migration destination areas.
A further interaction between migration and climate change is forced migration due to conflict. This type of migration is also involuntary, and has implications in both conflict areas and population-receiving areas. The direct links between climate risks and conflict risks are not well established, yet the issue of attribution and causation is not the most relevant issue [66, 67]. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that climate change impacts are likely to exacerbate poverty in resource-sensitive regions and that since poverty is a principal driver and predicator of violent conflict, the risks of climate change amplifying conflict risks in future are real . Conflict itself has significantly differential effects on the ability of populations to relocate from conflict zones [68, 69]. Climate change, if it is to affect conflict risk, does so through expanding poverty as a principal cause of insecurity and conflict. Hence, in theory, there is a plausible route for increased risk in conflict-prone areas of the world over the incoming decades, in the absence of efforts for development and relief of the underlying causes of conflict in those regions [66, 67].
The principal form of migration globally, however, continues to be the movement of populations to urban centers within their national borders. In terms of absolute numbers, this trend is apparent and stark in Asia and Africa in particular [70, 71]. Geographically, these migration trends are fueling trends of population movement towards coasts, and movement away from dry land and mountain environments . This dominant migration trend, in terms of numbers, creates significant environmental and public health challenges. The migrant populations moving into cities are differentially exposed to climate hazards in those places: low income migrant communities are often located in flood prone zones or areas susceptible to landslides. Migrant populations cluster in areas with low air quality or in slums with lack of access to sanitation or clean water [60, 62]. Hence migration trends exacerbate environmental health risks: as many people are moving towards risks as moving away from them. These processes have both distal and proximal dimensions.
A weight of evidence suggests that climate-related environmental change in one part of the world will have systemic health and wellbeing impacts elsewhere at some point. Complex global interconnectivities underpin the pathways which are spatially and temporally distal. Vulnerability to health effects in geographically distant places is translated to individuals and communities by economic, social, ecological, biogeochemical, and resource flow mechanisms.
Future policies and interventions to deal with these risks need to account for how those risks are spatially and socially differentiated, and how their accessibility is dependent on a range of social and cultural contexts, such that the benefits of those interventions are widespread [2, 20]. Similarly, the mitigation of climate change through decarburization of energy and altered economic systems have the potential to bring about significant benefits to health and wellbeing, especially if these are widely distributed. Despite sentinel attempts over time by various commentators [see for example [15–18], there is still a need to help people in specific locations or countries (including policymakers) to understand and communicate climate-related health threats on vastly expanded temporal and spatial scales.
The concept of ecosystem services and recent representations of their links to human health and wellbeing [6, 34] demonstrate important relationships in many chains of causation. Both the benefits and dis-benefits of globalization are unevenly distributed between and within countries and regions, and are invariably socially patterned and stratified to impact the most deprived. The complexity of proximal and distal pathways, suggests the need for a set of rapidly evolving novel qualitative and quantitative evidence and analysis techniques associated with the growth of big data in environment and human health research  The linking of ecosystem services to human health and wellbeing can be an important component in operationalizing a new truly ecological public health. Communicating to a wide and diverse audience, that fostering better human health and wellbeing depends upon, and is intimately linked to, the changing state and sustainability of the Earth’s geochemical and ecological systems, remains one of the greatest challenges of our time.
Contributory research was funded in part by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office; the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the MEDMI Project; and the European Regional Development Fund Programme and European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly (University of Exeter Medical School).
This paper is a reduced version of a technical paper provided in support of a Health Report Card produced for the UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) Network.
Publication of this article was funded by the UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) Network. LWEC was succeeded in 2016 by the Research and Innovation for our Dynamic Environment (RIDE) Forum (http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/partnerships/ride/).
Availability of data and materials
About this supplement
This article has been published as part of Environmental Health Volume 16 Supplement 1, 2017: Special Issue on the impact of climate change on health in the UK. The full contents of the supplement are available online at https://0-ehjournal-biomedcentral-com.brum.beds.ac.uk/articles/supplements/volume-16-supplement-1.
Open peer review
Peer review reports for this article are available in Additional file 1.
GPM conceived the idea and led the paper writing, developing the structure and coordinating input. SR provided key input on linking environmental and human health with a focus on pollution and the eDPSEEA conceptual model. LEF contributed expertise on public health, key aspects of climate-related environmental change and contributed content to various sections. SAB contributed on conceptual modelling and its links to policy. WNA and TGB led the sections on Food Security and Migration respectively. MHD provided expertise on pharmaceuticals in the environment, global environmental change and important commentary on overall structure. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Consent for publication
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
- International Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report climate change 2013: impacts adaptation and vulnerability summary for policymakers. 2014. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/12/11090318/0. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Thomas F, Sabel CE, Morton K, Hiscock R, Depledge MH. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. Environ Sci Policy. 2014;44:271–8. http://0-dx.doi.org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.08.011
- Rayner G, Lang T. Ecological Public Health: Reshaping the Conditions for Good Health. Routledge Publishers; 2012.Google Scholar
- McMichael AJ. Prisoners of the proximate: loosening the constraints on epidemiology in an age of change. Am J Epidemiol. 1999;15, 149(10):887–97.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Krieger N. Proximal, distal, and the politics of causation: What’s level got to do with it? American J Pub Health. 2008;98:221–30. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2007.111278.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: Synthesis. Washington: Island Press; 2005.Google Scholar
- Scottish Government (2008). Good places better health: a new approach to environment and health in Scotland – implementation plan. http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Doc/254447/0075343.pdf. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Scottish Government (2011). Good places better health- supporting documentation. http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0039/00398236.pdf. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- NHS Health Scotland. A place standard for Scotland http://www.healthscotland.com/resources/cpps/local/placestandard.aspx. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Haines A, Fuchs C. Potential impacts on health of atmospheric change. J Publ Health Med. 1991;13:69–80.Google Scholar
- Chivian E. Critical condition: human health and the environment. MIT Press. 1993;Google Scholar
- McMichael AJ. Global environmental change and human population health: a conceptual and scientific challenge for epidemiology. Int J Epidemiol. 1993;22:1–8.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Kovats RS, Haines A, Stanwell-Smith R, Martens P, Menne B, Bertollini R. Climate change and human health in Europe. BMJ. 1999;318(7199):1682–5.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Department of Health (2001) 2001/2002 health effects of climate change in the UK, Crown Copyright.Google Scholar
- McMichael AJ, Haines A, Slooff R, Kovats S. (Eds): climate change and human health. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1996.Google Scholar
- Butler CD, Corvalán CF, Koren HS. Human health and well-being in global ecological scenarios. Ecosystems. 2005;8(2):153–64.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Butler CD, Harley D. Primary, secondary and tertiary effects of eco-climatic change: the medical response. Postgrad Med J. 2010;86:230–4.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Butler CD.Climate Change and Global Health: a new conceptual framework. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources.2014;9(27) doi:10.1079/PAVSNNR20149027
- Smith KR, Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, Liu Q, et al. Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (2014). In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. In: Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2014. p. 709–54.Google Scholar
- Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W et al. 2015 Lancet commission on health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet. 2015; doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6.Google Scholar
- Lowe JA, Gregory JM. The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom. Phil Trans R Soc A. 2005;363:1313–28. doi:10.1098/rsta.2005.1570.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Purvis MJ, Bates PD, Hayes CM. A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise. Coast Eng. 2008;55:1062–73.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Thomas M, Pidgeon N, Whitmarsh L, Ballinger R. Mental models of sea-level change: a mixed methods analysis on the Severn estuary. UK Glob Env Change. 2015;33:71–82.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Taylor AL, Dessai S, de Bruin WB (2014) Public perception of climate risk and adaptation in the UK: a review of the literature. Sustainability research institute paper no. 63, SRI PAPERS, SRI Papers (online) ISSN 1753-1330.Google Scholar
- Nurse LA, RF ML, Agard J, Briguglio LP, Duvat-Magnan V, Pelesikoti N, Tompkins E, Webb A. Small islands. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL, editors. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2014. p. 1613–54. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap29_FINAL.pdf. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Redshaw CH, Stahl-Timmins WM, Fleming LE, et al. Potential changes in disease patterns and pharmaceutical use in response to climate change. J Toxicol Environ Health B Crit Rev. 2013;16(5):285–320. doi:10.1080/10937404.2013.802265.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Oppenheimer M, Campos M, Warren R, Birkmann J, Luber G, O’Neill B, et al. Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: Part a: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, vol. 2014. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University press. p. 1039–99.Google Scholar
- Kovats RS, Depledge M, Haines A, Fleming LE, Wilkinson P, Shonkoff SB, Scovronick N. The health implications of fracking. Lancet. 2014;383(9919):757–8.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Lang T, Rayner G. Ecological public health: the 21st century’s big idea? An essay by Tim Lang and Geof Rayner. BMJ. 2012;345:e5466.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Morris GP. Ecological public health and climate change policy. Perspectives in Public Health. 2012;130(1):34–40.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Dahlgren G. Whitehead M policies and strategies to promote social equity and health. World Health Organisation: Copenhagen; 1992.Google Scholar
- Evans RG, Stoddard GL. Producing health. Consuming Health Care Soc Sci Med. 1994;31:1359.Google Scholar
- Morris GP, Beck SA, Hanlon P, Robertson R. Getting strategic about the environment and health. Pub Health. 2006;120:889–907.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Reis S, Morris G, Fleming LE, Beck S, Taylor T, White M, Depledge MH, Steinle S, Sabel CE, Cowie H, Hurley F, McP DJ, Smith RI, Austen M. Integrating Health & Environmental Impact Analysis. Pub Health. 2015;129(10):1383–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2013.07.006 View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Corvalan C, Briggs D, Kjellstrom T. Development of environmental health indicators. In: Briggs D, Corvalan NN, editors. Linkage methods for environmental health analysis: general guidelines. Geneva: WHO; 1996. p. 19–53.Google Scholar
- World Health Organisation. Environmental health indicators for Europe: a pilot indicator based report. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe; 2004. http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/140925/E82938.pdf. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Fisher B, Turner RK. Morling P defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making. Ecol Econ. 2009;68(3):643–53.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- De Groot RS, Wilson MA, RMJ B. A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Ecol Econ. 2002;41:393–408.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Daily GC, Soderquist T, Aniyar S, Arrow K, Dasgupta P, Ehrlich PR, Folke C, Jansson AM, Jansson BO, Kautsky N, Levin S, Lubchenco J, Maler KG, David S, Starrett D, Tilman D. Walker B the value of nature and the nature of value. Science. 2000;289:395–6.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Daily GC. Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Washington, DC: Island Press; 1997.Google Scholar
- The UK National Ecosystem Assessment Technical Report UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Box GEP (1976) Science and statistics. J am stat Assoc. 2011;71:791–799, doi:10.1080/01621459.1976.10480949.
- Adger WN, Eakin H. Winkels a nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change. Front Ecol Environ. 2009;7(3):150–7. doi:10.1890/070148.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Liu J, Hull V, Batistella M, DeFries R, Dietz T, Fu F, Hertel TW, Izaurralde RC, Lambin EF, Li S, Martinelli LA, McConnell WJ, Moran EF, Naylor R, Ouyang Z, Polenske KR, Reenberg A, de Miranda RG, Simmons CS, Verburg PH, Vitousek PM, Zhang F, Zhu C. Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world. Ecol Soc. 2013;18(2):26.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Liu J, Mooney H, Hull V, Davis SJ, Gaskell J, Hertel T, Lubchenco J, Seto KC, Gleick P, Kremen C, Li S. Systems integration for global sustainability. Science. 2015;347(6225):1258832.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Wheeler T, von Braun J. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science. 2013;341(6145):508–13.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Myers SS, Zanobetti A, Kloog I, Huybers P, Leakey AD, Bloom AJ, et al. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature. 2014;510:139–42.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Wheeler T, Reynolds C. Predicting the risks from climate change to forage and crop production for animal feed. Anim Front. 2013;3(1):36–41.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Nelson GC, Valin H, Sands RD, Havlik P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, et al. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. PNAS. 2013;111(9):3274–9.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Taheripour F, Hertel TW, Liu J. The role of irrigation in determining the global land use impacts of biofuels. Energ Sust & Soc. 2013;3(1):1–18.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Smith P, Haberl H, Popp A, Erb K-H, Lauk C, Harper R, et al. How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals? Glob Change Biol. 2013;19(8):2285–302.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP Climate change will affect the Asian water. Science.2010;328(5984):1382–1385.towers.Google Scholar
- Smith P, Gregory PJ, van Vuuren D, Obersteiner M, Havlik P, Rounsevell M, et al. Competition for land. Phil Trans Royal Soc Biol Sci. 2012;365(1554):2941–57.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Tscharntke T, Clough Y, Wanger TC, Jackson L, Motzke I, Perfecto I, et al. Global food security, biodiversity conservation and the future of agricultural intensification. Biol Conserv. 2012;151(1):53–9.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Browne JA, Hood A, Joyce R Child and Work-Age Poverty in Northern Ireland from 2010-2020. Institute of Fiscal Studies Report; 2012 http://www.ifs.org.uk/comms/r78.pdf. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Spratt S. (2013) Food price volatility and financial speculation. Future agricultures working paper 47; Department for International Development. https://assets.publishing.servic.gov.uk/media/57a08a2ce5274a31e0000478/FAC_working-paper_047.pdf. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Dept for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (2012). Food statistics pocketbook. DEFRA. 2012; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/food-statisticspocketbook-2012. Accessed 16 Oct 2016
- Ivanic M, Martin W, Zaman H. Estimating the short-run poverty impacts of the 2010-11 surge in food prices. World Dev. 2012;40(11):2302–17.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Valin H, Sands RD, van den Mensbrugghe D, Nelson GC, Ahammad H, Blanc E, et al. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agric Econ. 2014;45(1):51–67.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Black R, Bennett SR, Thomas SM, Beddington JR. Climate change: migration as adaptation. Nature. 2011;478(7370):447–9.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Piguet É, Pécoud A, de Guchteneire P. Migration and Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011.Google Scholar
- Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, et al. The effect of environmental change on human migration. Glob Environ Change. 2011;21(Suppl 1):S3–S11.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Geddes A, Adger WN, Arnell NW, et al. Migration, environmental change, and the challenges of governance. Environ Plann C Gov Policy. 2012;30(6):951–67.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Milojevic A, Kovats S, Leonardi G, et al. Population displacement after the 2007 floods in Kingston-upon-Hull, England. J Flood Risk Mgt. 2014;9(2):99–104. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12111.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Fussell E, Sastry N, Van Landingham M. Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after hurricane Katrina. Popul Environ. 2010;31:20–42.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Adger WN, Pulhin J, Barnett J et al. Human Security In: Field C et al. (eds) IPCC Working Group 2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge 68. University Press 2014, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Accessed 16 Oct 2016.
- Bowles DC, et al. Climate change, conflict, and health. J Royal Soc Med. 2015;108(10):390–5.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Gleditsch NP. Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. J Peace Res. 2012;49(1):3–9.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Raleigh C. The search for safety: the effects of conflict, poverty and ecological influences on migration in the developing world. Glob Environ Change. 2011;21(Suppl 1):S82–93.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Parnell S, Walawege R. Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change. Glob Environ Change. 2011;21(Suppl 1):S12–20.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Seto KC. Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia and Africa: contemporary drivers and future scenarios. Glob Environ Chang. 2011;21(Suppl 1):S94–S107.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- de Shernbinin A, Levy M, Adamo S, et al. Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas. Environ Res Lett. 2012;7(4):045602.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Fleming LE, Haines A, Golding B, Kessel A, Cichowska A, Sabel CE, Depledge MH, Sarran C, Osborne NJ, Whitmore C, Cocksedge N, Bloomfield D. Data mashups: potential contribution to decision support on climate change and health. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014; Feb 4;11(2):1725–46. doi:10.3390/ijerph110201725.View ArticleGoogle Scholar